In the past 2011, for the vast amount of investment, the bitterness was only known to the public. Whether it was the smashing of bank wealth management products, the gold that rose wildly at the beginning of the year, and the usury that was full of bubbles, it was like a short-lived one. From 2009, the rising mahogany furniture, on the tail of 2011, caught up with the last bus of this sad reminder. Different investors have different views on whether the price of redwood will continue to repeat the tragedy of 2007.
True fall
Reason one: raw material price reduction
The price of the raw materials market will continue. Since 2007, scarcity factors and the promotion of hot money have led to a surge in redwood raw materials. At the moment, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the mahogany furniture market is extremely strong, making the mahogany raw materials in a state of pricelessness, and the buyers and sellers continue to stalemate. In addition, under the trend of “innovation†in the industry, “material scarcity theory†will gradually be diluted by new materials, which will further affect the decline of raw material prices of redwood.
Reason 2: The large withdrawal of hot money
The bursting of the redwood industry bubble is directly related to the withdrawal of hot money. The industry pointed out. "Wenzhou Corps" was once the main force to promote the rise of domestic mahogany furniture, but since the second half of 2010, Wenzhou investors began to gradually cash out, and investors from all over the world have also intensified their withdrawal. In addition, SMEs based on speculative wood will be difficult to survive.
Liu Cheng, a doctoral supervisor at the School of Economics and Management of Beijing University of Science and Technology, believes that in the face of changes in the mahogany furniture market, investment risks are beginning to emerge. Some prophetic investors have begun to withdraw on a large scale, and slow-moving hot money has fallen into a difficult situation.
Reason 3: Market reshuffle
According to industry experts, “the redwood industry has been shuffled in advance. In 2012, the industry will face a major reshuffle and will continue to shuffle for two to three years, staged a brutal competition for the survival of the fittest.†Now there are 13,000 in the country. There are more than 50 brands with a good reputation, but if you want to occupy a favorable position in the market, you must build a strong brand.
Fake
Reason one: raw material prices continue to rise
In the national mahogany furniture professional town of Dayong Town, Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, the president of the Redwood Furniture Association Xiao Zhaoxing said that the raw material prices continue to rise, making the price of mahogany furniture small. According to the purchase of raw materials by the manufacturers of Dayong, the prices of various raw materials of redwood have not only declined, but are growing at a rate of 10% to 20% every year. In addition, labor costs have increased rapidly, and workers' wages have also increased at a rate of more than 10% per year.
Reason 2: The price drop is a "conspiracy" of hot money
Some people believe that as a resource product, mahogany production is declining, especially when the market price has become more reasonable. If there is another plunge, it will not conform to the market rules. Moreover, the prices of almost all commodities, including food, vegetables, and commodities, have risen in recent times, but the price of rosewood has fallen, and some say no. "Therefore, this is most likely a 'conspiracy', and the 2007 price of redwood will not be ruled out again."
Reason 3: The price drop is just a "fake"
"I am not in a hurry, this year may rise, and it has risen quite a lot. I estimate that it will reach more than 20,000." The boss who has been working in the processing of logs for many years in Guangxi Dongxing told reporters that the current powerful companies and businesses are more powerful. In the past, the accumulated backlog of wood is generally not sold at a reduced price, because the price of rosewood has soared again after the downturn in the 2008 financial crisis, and many people are still optimistic about this year's rosewood market. Unlike small businesses rushing to sell, some big investors are still preparing to take risks and take advantage of the bottom.
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