In 2012, it is on schedule. In the new year, will the home market continue to be in the doldrums, or will it enter a new round of growth? In the new home of the home held by Sohu Home, the industry is swaying the market trend in 2012. According to the forecast content, it is clearly divided into two major factions: the “pessimistic faction†represented by Guo Hui, president of Shengxiang Floor, who believes that the household market in 2012 is more difficult than that in 2011 due to the influence of real estate control policies; The representative optimists believe that although the regulation is not relaxed, the market game will continue. However, as the Chinese economy begins to stabilize, the rigid demand in the future may be released, and economic growth will not be underestimated. (pessimistic PK optimism 2012 market trend speculation)
Pessimism: "2012 will be a disaster"
In 2011, the impact of the macro-control of the property market on home retail terminals is increasingly apparent, consumer demand is shrinking, and store traffic is significantly reduced. At the same time, household enterprises have to bear the double pressure of rising raw materials and rents. Under this circumstance, some manufacturers and dealers have fallen into a "mud" of survival, and their situation is worrying. This scene has made some industry amnesty not optimistic about the market trend in 2012.
"According to the "2012" movie, 2012 will be a disaster," said Guo Hui, president of Shengxiang Floor. The development of China's home building materials industry is closely related to the background of national economic development. The most closely related is the real estate industry. Judging from the current situation, the state has not shown any signs of loosening in real estate regulation and control. “There is no tendency to improve or warm up.†Therefore, Guo Hui pointed out that 2012 will be more difficult than the 2011 home market situation. Do a good job of "wintering". This forecast was approved by Zhao Ruihai, president of Qumei Furniture Group.
In general, the impact of real estate regulation and control policies on the home industry will not be immediate. As Gao Dekang, chairman of the German-Italian Holdings Group, said, the impact of the most stringent real estate regulation in history has not fully emerged, and the impact of real estate will be lagging (generally 6 to 8 months), so the market for most companies in 2012 The growth rate is slowing down. Coincidentally, Xie Yuerong, the managing director of Lehua Group, agrees with Gao Dekang, saying that due to the lag of real estate control policies, the 2012 home building materials market is worrying. Applying the prediction of Tamil Wooden Door Chairman Wu Chenxi, "In 2012, China's home building materials industry can't say no, but it should not be possible to suddenly improve, and it is possible to continue to stabilize, decline, and stabilize."
In 2012, for the home market, in addition to the impact of real estate regulation and control policies, monetary tightening has become one of the important factors in the industry. In the second half of 2008, the global financial crisis hit, the government issued a series of support measures to give market and industry certain funds and resources to support. In 2011, the government adopted a series of regulation and control policies such as “restricted purchase†and “limited loansâ€, which are intended to recover funds. Xiao Hua, chairman of the Mona Lisa Group, predicts that the country will continue to tighten funds in 2012, which will cause some enterprises to break funds and face a downturn. The survival environment facing enterprises is more difficult than 2011.
Optimist: "I am still very optimistic about the market in 2012"
Unlike the pessimistic market downturn theory, in the eyes of optimists, although the market is affected by the regulation of real estate policies, it is not as bad as imagined. With the loosening of policies and the stabilization of the economy, the market is expected to have a "dawn" in the second half of the year. .
Liu Shuozhen, the president of Living House Flooring, is one of the representatives of the “optimist†who has supported his predictions in economics. He pointed out that the Chinese economy is closely related to the global economy. In today's market economy construction, macroeconomic regulation plays an important role and presents cyclical characteristics. "According to my prediction, from mid-2012 to 2013, the Chinese economy will begin to stabilize, and economic growth will not be underestimated by then."
In his view, the stabilization of the economy will drive the development of the entire home furnishing industry. Therefore, "I am still very optimistic about the market in 2012."
According to Wang Yulin, deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the sales volume in January-October 2011 reached 896 million square meters. This figure has exceeded the annual sales in 2007 and 2008, which is close to the sales in 2009. the amount. At the same time, coupled with the number of affordable housing, the market situation in 2011 was significantly better than in 2009. At the same time, it is understood that real estate development enterprises have grown from more than 50,000 before 2008 to 80,000 today.
This set of figures undoubtedly adds confidence to the home building materials business. Li Guiqi, director of operations of Digu Rila (China) Coatings Co., Ltd., told reporters that according to the speech of Director Wang Yulin, it can be concluded that the amount of building construction in 2011 is quite large. From the perspective of domestic bank reserve funds, the market will not be too bad in 2012. . If the policy is slightly loose, it will likely usher in an explosive market. Peng Huan, the general manager of Emperor Standard Furniture, shares the same views as Li’s inspiration. In 2012, rigid demand still exists, and it will develop in a better direction than the 2011 market.
"From the strategic layout point of view, the first half of 2012 will continue to continue the market downturn in 2011, the market will rebound from the bottom in the second half of the year, the home market will usher in a better market in 2013." Ou Yi Electric Marketing Director Ke Jianfei said . At the same time, he pointed out that with the change of the national government and the introduction of favorable policies, there will be a dawn in the second half of the year.
2012 turning point? Breakthrough needs ideas
Whether it is "pessimistic" or "optimistic", the interview mentioned a word: shuffle. According to industry analysts, under the influence of real estate policy regulation in 2011, various factors such as sales sluggishness and rising corporate costs have made manufacturers more competitive, and the home industry will face a new round of reshuffle.
The rapid development of China's home furnishing industry, especially after nearly a decade of rapid expansion, has completed the development path of foreign countries for decades. However, at the same time of rapid development, many problems have also been exposed. Wang Linpeng, president of the Real Home Group, pointed out that the current industry is mixed, and there are very few companies that really put development on management and services. In the face of the already 2012, under the influence of real estate regulation, the industry will enter the reshuffle stage of the big waves. This view was endorsed by Ding Zuohong, the chairman of Yuexing Group. He added that with the overweight of real estate regulation and control, the industry entered the reshuffle period.
Indeed, in response to the rapid development of the economy, people's level of improvement, consumer brand awareness is getting stronger and stronger, not only pay attention to the price of products, but also pay more attention to the choice of brands. The brand has undoubtedly increased the brand's shuffled chips. Chen Xiaotai, chairman of Baiqiang Furniture, told reporters that the number of people buying brand furniture is increasing, and the market share of brand furniture is also increasing. In 2012, the market will follow the natural law of survival of the fittest, and those without brand, integrity, and quality will be eliminated.
It is inevitable that enterprises want to be winners, change and break through. Innovative President Yang Jianwei Sohu Weibo said that 2012 will become a turning point in the history of home, it will become a turning point in the overall industry sales trend, and will also become a year for enterprises to change their business ideas. Among them, Cobo Boloni is a typical case of business transformation. It is understood that Cobo and Boloni, which were originally operated separately, have become Cobo Boloni. At the same time, Boloni announced that it will shrink its home improvement business in third- and fourth-tier cities, and that the product platform that has always adhered to full closure will also be open. Yang Jianwei pointed out that the industry is turning, and the trend will turn. In 2008, everyone relied on strength. In 2012, everyone relied on ideas.
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