20 Chinese and foreign authorities predict:
Artificial intelligence will increase global GDP by 12% in the next decade
Once upon a time, artificial intelligence was just the picture depicted in science fiction. Nowadays, with the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, some applications of artificial intelligence are increasingly changing our lives. Human beings have entered the "smart age", and countries around the world have been rushing to the beach. China has also made strategic arrangements. This year, the State Council issued the "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan", which put forward the guiding ideology, strategic objectives, key tasks and safeguard measures for the development of China's new generation of artificial intelligence in 2030, deploying the first-mover advantage of building artificial intelligence in China, and accelerating the construction of innovative models. National and world science and technology powers. The "Economic Information Daily" has launched a series of "Intelligent Times" reports (upper, middle and lower) from today to readers.
According to the forecast data of 20 authoritative organizations at home and abroad, in the next ten years (until 2030), artificial intelligence will boost global GDP by about 12%, nearly 10 trillion US dollars. According to the agency's analysis, artificial intelligence will promote and drive the global economy in three forms and ways, while the United States and China may become the leader in technology and industry.
Development trend: global market size increases by 15% annually
According to the CCID Research Institute, the global artificial intelligence market will reach 269.73 billion yuan in 2018, with a growth rate of 17%. According to more institutional data, the global artificial intelligence market has grown at an average annual rate of 15% in the last five years. At the end of 2016, the scale of China's artificial intelligence market is less than 30 billion yuan. It is expected that by 2018, the market size is expected to exceed 38 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 26.3%. According to VentureSCAnner, as of 2016, there were nearly 1,000 artificial intelligence companies in the world, and the United States ranked first with 502. At present, international technology giants including Google have entered the field of artificial intelligence.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and China National Capital Corporation said that by 2030, more than half of the growth will be attributed to the increase in labor productivity, while others are mainly due to the increase in consumer demand stimulated by artificial intelligence.
Most organizations said in an interview that, on the whole, all countries in the world will benefit from artificial intelligence and achieve substantial economic growth. From now to 2030, global GDP will increase by about 12%, nearly 10 trillion US dollars. North America and Europe will be the biggest beneficiaries of this round of intelligent revolution. In developing countries (especially Latin America and Africa), artificial intelligence will be expected to promote moderate economic growth due to the low adoption rate of artificial intelligence technology.
According to a report by internationally renowned PwC, artificial intelligence will boost the global economy. To quantify, from now until 2030, artificial intelligence will increase global GDP by 14%, which means artificial intelligence by 2030. It will contribute $15.7 trillion to the world economy. The average predicted by several other international agencies is that artificial intelligence will increase global GDP by about 12% in the next decade.
PwC experts said in an interview with reporters: "From the perspective of geographical distribution, China and North America are expected to become the biggest beneficiaries of artificial intelligence, with a total benefit equivalent to 10.7 trillion US dollars, accounting for nearly 70% of the global growth rate. In the early stage of artificial intelligence development, productivity growth in North America will be higher than that in China due to high technology maturity. But after ten years, China has completed relatively slow accumulation of technology and expertise, and will begin to catch up with North America. Yongdao also introduced the concept of “Artificial Intelligence Impact Indexâ€. Retail industry, financial services and healthcare will be the most beneficiary industries as artificial intelligence will increase productivity and product value and drive consumption growth.
Accenture expects that as a new production factor, artificial intelligence has the potential to increase the total value added of China's economy in 2035 by $7.1 trillion. The report also found that, thanks to artificial intelligence to help employees use their time more effectively, by 2035, artificial intelligence is expected to boost China's labor productivity by 27%.
According to Chuan Neo Chong, chairman of Accenture Greater China, “China has made great progress in the field of artificial intelligence. Of course, as with any technology that drives change, we should face the challenges and risks of artificial intelligence. Relevant parties should be prepared in all aspects of intelligence, technology, politics, ethics and society to meet the future led by artificial intelligence."
Artificial intelligence is portraying a huge future market, and artificial intelligence will spawn several billion-dollar or even trillion-dollar industries. In the financial industry, for example, Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2025, artificial intelligence can create approximately $34 billion to $43 billion in annual value through cost savings and new profit opportunities.
According to the relevant organizations' data on the amount of artificial intelligence investment in the world, it was US$4.25 billion in 2016 and the average annual growth rate in the past five years reached 50.11%. From the number of mergers and acquisitions and IPOs of artificial intelligence companies, from only two in 2012 to 68 in 2016, the global venture capital in artificial intelligence has also soared from 589 million in 2012 to 2016. More than 5 billion US dollars.
Power Logic: Three Ways to Stimulate Growth
The Economic Information Daily interviewed domestic and foreign authorities to understand that the promotion and traction of artificial intelligence to the global economy may present three forms and methods. First, it creates a new virtual workforce that can solve complex tasks that require adaptability and agility, namely “intelligent automationâ€. Second, artificial intelligence complements and enhances existing labor and physical assets. Improve employee capacity and improve capital efficiency; Third, the popularity of artificial intelligence will promote relevant innovations in multiple industries, increase total factor productivity, and open up new economic growth opportunities.
Based on the simulation analysis of the overall impact of artificial intelligence on China's economy, combined with industry-scale data, Accenture analyzes the possible economic impact of artificial intelligence on 15 industries in China. Research shows that manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, wholesale and retail industries will be the three industries that have benefited the most from artificial intelligence applications. By 2035, artificial intelligence will boost the annual growth rate of these three industries by 2%, 1.8% and 1.7% respectively.
Goldman Sachs' latest research says that in the entire US industry, labor hours have been reduced by about 0.5% to 1.5%, driven by automation. According to relevant case predictions, 1.61% of US growth productivity in 2025 will be contributed by artificial intelligence, which is 11 basis points higher than 1995-2004.
In recent years, the venture capital of start-ups related to artificial intelligence has increased dramatically. In particular, the cloud platform has invested heavily in artificial intelligence-related talents. Since 2014, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Salesforce have conducted 17 projects and artificial intelligence. Related acquisitions.
According to Tang Tao of the Silicon Valley Technology Association of the United States, the world is currently in the early stages of artificial intelligence platforms, and future applications, tools and service enablers will explode.
Relevant data show that from 2001 to 2015, artificial intelligence robots contributed 0.4 percentage points per year to GDP growth in 17 countries. Cases where artificial intelligence significantly increases labor productivity and partially replaces workers are everywhere. Japanese insurance companies introduced IBM's artificial intelligence system in 2017 to replace 34 white-collar workers. According to Japanese media reports, in this project, $1.7 million was introduced into IBM's artificial intelligence system, and the annual maintenance cost was about $128,000. By using an artificial intelligence system, the company will save $1.1 million annually in the future, which means that the investment can be recovered in two years.
While artificial intelligence increases productivity, it also adds some “troubleâ€. According to reports, in the United States, traders in the financial industry have decreased by 10% to 20% in recent years. Financial technology companies that integrate information technology and finance, such as artificial intelligence, "appear one after another in New York." The customer service center of Infosys, a large IT service company in Mysore, southern India, was replaced by an artificial intelligence system capable of recognizing voice. System development also involved artificial intelligence. At the same time as improving production efficiency, about 5% of the company's 190,000 employees, equivalent to more than 8,000 jobs, no longer exist. The results of the research conducted by the Nomura Research Institute in Japan and the University of Oxford in the UK show that artificial intelligence can replace 49% of human work in the future.
Of course, artificial intelligence is also creating new jobs while cutting human jobs. For example, people who need to modify artificial intelligence programs to meet customer needs, as well as data analysis processors, are increasingly demanding business such as this.
Chen Xiaobing, president of Accenture Greater China Information Technology Services, said: "Artificial intelligence will change the future of China's industries. To fully realize its potential, business leaders need to incorporate artificial intelligence into their development strategies, which means companies need to adjust. The company's structure is to fully apply artificial intelligence and think more innovatively about its operations and business models."
Big country wrestling: China or the United States or leading the world
In response to the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the United States released "Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence" in October 2016, which made progress on the development of artificial intelligence, existing and potential applications, and possible social and policy issues. In-depth analysis and proposed the federal government's corresponding measures in research, technology, personnel training and governance.
The United States has been at the forefront of basic research in artificial intelligence, mainly supported by federal research funds and government laboratories. The federal government's research and development of open artificial intelligence is mainly managed through the Network and Information Technology Research and Development (NITRD) project, and is supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Institute of the United States. Supported by the Institute of Health Research (NIH), the Office of Naval Research (ONR), and the Advanced Intelligence Research Projects Agency (IARPA). The National Strategic Computing Initiative, the Big Data Initiative, and the Advanced Innovation Neural Network Technology Initiative also indirectly promote the research and development of artificial intelligence.
Japan also attaches great importance to the development of artificial intelligence. It not only regards the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and robots as the core of the fourth industrial revolution, but also establishes a relatively complete R&D promotion mechanism at the national level, and identifies 2017 as the first year of artificial intelligence. .
The EU has selected the “Human Brain Project†as one of the future emerging technology flagship projects, laying the technical foundation for a new brain research model based on ICT, and accelerating the transformation of brain scientific research results. The European Commission and the European Robotics Association have completed the SPARC program to fund innovation in the field of robotics. By 2020, the European Commission will invest 700 million euros, which will increase the annual output value of the European robotics industry to 60 billion euros and increase its global market share to 42%.
According to Japanese media reports, in the field of artificial intelligence research, which is increasingly fierce in competition, the “presence of existence†in the United States and China is strengthening. According to the analysis of the Institute of Science, Technology and Academic Policy of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, China and the United States have an overwhelming advantage in terms of the results of the major international societies, and joint research reports between the two countries are also increasing. In addition, there have been cases of Chinese companies providing research investments to American universities.
On July 20 this year, the State Council of China issued the "New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan", and proposed the guiding ideology, strategic goals, key tasks and safeguard measures for the development of China's new generation of artificial intelligence in 2030, and deployed the construction of artificial intelligence in China. First-mover advantage, accelerate the construction of innovative countries and world science and technology powers.
China plans to “three steps†to build artificial intelligence development goals. By 2030, artificial intelligence theory, technology and applications have reached the world's leading level, becoming the world's major artificial intelligence innovation center. The breadth of application of artificial intelligence in production, life, social governance, and national defense construction has greatly expanded, forming a complete industrial chain and high-end industrial cluster covering core technologies, key systems, support platforms and intelligent applications. The scale of artificial intelligence core industry exceeds 1 One trillion yuan has driven the relevant industries to exceed 10 trillion yuan.
Most international organizations interviewed said that from the perspective of research capabilities, China and the United States have the potential to lead in artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence research has led the world in basic research by American universities such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of California, and Stanford University. In recent years, artificial intelligence companies such as Google, Facebook, and Microsoft have also vigorously promoted. At the same time, the research capabilities of Chinese universities and enterprises are also significantly improved.
Foreign institutions analyzed and investigated three international conferences with authoritative research in the field of artificial intelligence research. From the international conference of the most authoritative American Society of Artificial Intelligence, in recent years, the research results of the United States and China have proliferated. In 2015, the number of universities and enterprises in the United States reached 326 (48.4%), the highest proportion, followed by 138 (20.5%) in China. The two countries account for about 70% of the total. Japan ranks 8th, only 20 (3%). In the past six years, 74.6% of the results published in the United States have been jointly studied with other countries, especially with China reaching 80. Some analysts believe that there are many cases in which Chinese students have conducted joint research with American universities after returning to China.
On the enterprise side, IT giants such as Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft, as well as Internet giants such as Baidu, Ali, and Tencent in China, have all regarded artificial intelligence as the breakthrough point of the next technological revolution, and invested heavily to accelerate the layout.
The automatic translation artificial intelligence developed by Google is highly accurate and has attracted the attention of researchers. The company's DeepMind Technologies is gaining results in emulating the artificial intelligence that humans use to judge this mechanism. The data shows that Google has acquired 11 artificial intelligence companies since 2012. In the first half of this year alone, Google has already reached two acquisitions in this area. The most recent acquisition on July 13 this year, the acquisition of the target for the Indian artificial intelligence company HalliLabs.
Apple, which has always been low-key in its corporate acquisition strategy, has also taken action in the field of artificial intelligence. In the past year, it has acquired three artificial intelligence companies, Emotient, Turi and Tuplejump. Intel acquired the three companies Itseez, Nervana Systems and Movius. In addition, Amazon acquired Orbeus, an artificial intelligence startup with image recognition technology.
In the budgetary requirements of the 2017 Budget, Japan applied for 92.4 billion yen for artificial intelligence related research, which is 9 times the initial budget for 2016. Japan plans to establish an artificial intelligence research institute at the Institute of Physical Chemistry to strengthen cooperation with enterprises and launch a new drug development plan based on artificial intelligence. Japanese companies have also joined the research and development and application of artificial intelligence.
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