After experiencing the worst April, China’s foreign trade continued to decline in both import and export in May. However, from the data of the two quarters of the second quarter, the continued decline in imports has highlighted the increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy, while exports have shown signs of improvement. In May, China’s total value of imports and exports decreased by 9.7%, exports fell by 2.8%, and imports fell by 18.1%, of which exports declined by 8.4 percentage points in March from the previous month in March, continuing to narrow by 3.4 percentage points. The decline in the total value of imports is still deepening, and the amount of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas added to imports has fallen by the price of commodities. Under the current background of unabated downward pressure on the domestic economy, low total demand, overcapacity, and lack of new growth drivers, China’s bulk commodity imports are not only facing price declines, but also the number of imports is accelerating, and there are even more. The volume of imports of bulk commodities has declined. In May, the import volume of iron ore, coal, and steel decreased by 8.4%, 40.7%, and 13.4%, and the decline slowed down compared to that in April. Unwrought copper and copper materials, solid waste, logs and sawn timber, rubber, edible vegetable oil Imports of such goods also continued to reduce the trend of import volume; while the volume of imports of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas, which had previously maintained an increasing trend, also saw a slight decline of 10.9% and 14.3%. At the same time, the decline in the import prices of bulk commodities is still deteriorating. Iron ore, crude oil import prices have fallen by more than 40%, coal, rubber, edible vegetable oil, and liquefied petroleum gas have fallen by more than 20%. Steel, unwrought copper and copper Wood, solid waste, logs and sawn timber fell by more than 10%. The author estimates that the decline in the import value of the above 10 commodities has dragged down the overall decline in China's imports by 11.5 percentage points in May. Among them, we see that the U.S. and some emerging cities have a good momentum in punishing exports along the “Belt and Road†market. Since the second quarter, China’s monthly export decline has been continuously narrowed, thanks to improved exports to some markets. For example, the economic recovery of the United States and South Africa, India, and ASEAN showed positive momentum. In May, China’s exports to the United States increased by 7.5%, Mexico’s by 5.6%, and South Africa’s by 0.6%; exports to India fell by 0.9% and ASEAN’s by 0.4%. Decline but also better than overall exports. At the same time, exports to some countries along the “One Belt and One Road†are also performing well in May. For example, exports to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Israel all showed rapid growth, which has a significant effect on boosting exports during the month. In addition, China’s exports to Australia, which has just signed the Free Trade Agreement, have grown by 5%, with broad prospects. However, we cannot ignore that, due to the significant depreciation of the renminbi against the European Union and the Japanese yen, China’s export product costs to the EU and Japan have risen. In May, its exports decreased by 7.3% and 8.5%, respectively; this was a significant drop; the emerging markets In Russia and Brazil, China’s exports to China were dragged down by weak demand. In May, they dropped by 40.6% and 15.8% respectively. Some high-tech and high-value-added products will have their export growth, or they will become new export growth points in the future. For some time, due to factors such as the significant increase in labor costs and exchange rate costs, Chinese exports have been more restrained in the context of weak external demand. In particular, the export of laptops and tablet computers, which are being replaced by labor-intensive products and applications with lower added value such as textiles and clothing, have all experienced a significant decrease, with textiles and clothing falling by 4.2% and 8.3% respectively. Laptops and tablets dropped by 12.5% ​​and 9.6% respectively. However, in sharp contrast, the rapid growth in the export of high-tech products such as mobile phones, printed circuits, medical instruments, etc., grew at 9.6%, 9.8%, and 11%, respectively. At the same time, furniture, toys, lamps, ceramics, and Exports of stainless steel cutlery kitchen utensils, household wood products, etc., which can carry higher value-added products, also increased by 8%, 15.7%, 24%, 28.5%, 78.5%, and 21.2%, respectively. The growth was gratifying. Although the overall performance of China’s exports in the second quarter was not as good as that in the first quarter, and its growth has been declining, the decline in exports in April and May since the second quarter continued to narrow. It can be said that China’s exports are showing signs of improvement. The author believes that this is mainly due to the country's review of the situation and continues to create a favorable policy environment for foreign trade. In addition to a series of policies and measures to support the development of foreign trade, this year, the Chinese government has also allowed foreign trade to take the "One Belt and One Road Strategy" development express train to deepen economic and trade cooperation with countries along the route. At the same time, it proposed the development of a new type of trade, “Internet + foreign trade,†encouraging the healthy and rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, achieving “advanced excellence,†and promoting the development of an open economy. From the data on China’s exports in May this year, it is not difficult to see which markets will become new to the future of China’s exports under the current background of profound changes in the political and economic environment at home and abroad, the weakening of traditional comparative advantages, and the absence of new competitive advantages. In the direction of development, which products will become new growth drivers for China’s exports in the future, in fact, the Chinese government has specified the road for the future of foreign trade exports and has set clear directions. All this is like adding a new development engine for China’s foreign trade car that drives economic growth. The purpose is to make China’s economy and foreign trade more stable, with better structure, better quality, and higher efficiency.
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