Source: Zhonghua Paper Media
Recently, Mr. Zhao Wei, Chairman of China Paper Association, made a report at the "2018 China Pulp and Paper Technology Forum and the 9th China Paper Pulp and Paper Technology Forum". The report analyzes in detail the production and profit of the paper industry in 2018, and predicts the trend of the paper industry in 2019.
01, 2018 production completion from January to September
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of September 2018, the number of enterprises in the pulp, paper and paper products industry was 6,672, an increase of 36 over the same period last year. Among them: 43 pulp mills, 3 fewer, 2,646 paper mills, 75 fewer, and 3,983 paper products manufacturing, an increase of 114.
The production volume of the National Bureau of Statistics from January to September this year and the data of the same period last year:
Paper and cardboard reached 88.66 million tons, a decrease of 5.93 million tons compared with the same period of last year, a decrease of 7.3%; pulp of 10.53 million tons, a decrease of 2.25 million tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 16%; paper products of 42.36 million tons, a decrease of 1219 compared with the same period last year. Ten thousand tons, down 22.3%; of which: carton production was 21.21 million tons, a decrease of 7.49 million tons from the same period last year, down 26.1%.
02. Completion of major economic indicators
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the main economic indicators of the above-scale pulp and paper and paper products enterprises from January to September 2018 and the comparison of last year's data are as follows:
(1) Main business income
The industry completed 107.8 billion, a decrease of 118.9 billion from the same period last year, down 10.1%. Among them: pulp manufacturing completed 1.23 billion, an increase of 2.3 billion over the same period last year, an increase of 23.6%; paper industry completed 635.3 billion, a decrease of 78.4 billion over the same period last year, down 11.0%; paper products manufacturing completed 410.2 billion, compared with the same period last year The data decreased by 42.8 billion, down 9.5%.
(2) Total profit
The industry completed 59.1 billion, a decrease of 14.8 billion from the same period last year, down 20.0%. Among them: pulp manufacturing industry completed 1.1 billion, an increase of 800 million over the same period last year, an increase of 266.7%; paper industry completed 37 billion, a decrease of 10.8 billion over the same period last year, a decrease of 22.6%; paper products manufacturing completed 20.9 billion, compared with the same period last year The data decreased by 4.9 billion, down 19.0%.
(3) Finished goods inventory
The industry totaled 58.8 billion, an increase of 13.3 billion over the same period last year, an increase of 29.2%. Among them: pulp manufacturing industry 640 million, an increase of 0.5 million over the same period last year, an increase of 7.3%; paper industry 4.13 billion, an increase of 12 billion over the same period last year, an increase of 41.0%; paper products manufacturing 16.8 billion, an increase of 12 over the same period last year Billion, an increase of 7.7%.
Based on the analysis of the statistical data of this year and last year, the overall economic indicators of the whole industry in the first nine months of this year are not as good as the previous year.
03. Imports of commercial pulp and waste paper and production of primary pulp
1. Analysis of the import of commercial pulp
From January to August 2018, domestic imports of various types of commercial pulp reached 16.47 million tons, an increase of 820,000 tons over the same period of the previous year, an increase of 5.2%. Among them, the bleached softwood pulp was 5.26 million tons, only increased by 10,000 tons, and the bleached broadleaf pulp was 8.36 million tons, an increase of 700,000 tons. The export of pulp is minimal. From the data of commodity pulp imports in the first 8 months, although all varieties have increased, the main increase in the total amount is mainly bleached hardwood pulp, and the bleached softwood pulp is not increased much.
In September, the import of various types of commercial pulp was 2.2 million tons, an increase of 13.9%. From January to September, the cumulative import was 18.67 million tons, an increase of 5.9%.
There is also a new situation this year, that is, after the import of waste paper is blocked, it has brought about an increase in the import of waste paper pulp. It is understood that 270,000 tons of waste paper pulp has been imported as of September.
Based on the import volume of the first eight months of this year and the supply of commercial pulp and pulp, combined with the domestic production of pulp, paper and paperboard, we expect that the total volume of imported pulp will be about 25 million tons this year (including about 2.8 million tons of dissolving pulp). The actual consumption of imported paper pulp for papermaking increased by about 5.5% year-on-year; the export volume is expected to be less than 50,000 tons, down by half from the previous year.
2. Waste paper imports and waste paper pulp production
From January to September this year, a total of 11.53 million tons of waste paper was imported, a decrease of 10.16 million tons from the same period of the previous year, a decrease of 46.8%. In addition, last year, domestic production of waste paper pulp was 63.02 million tons, and total waste paper consumption was about 78 million tons. Among them: imported waste paper of 25.72 million tons, domestic recycling of various types of waste paper about 52 million tons.
This year, due to the environmental protection license for imported paper and the import inspection standards, the import volume of waste paper has been sharply reduced, and the raw materials have tightened, which has led to the continuous high price of domestic waste paper. According to the current situation, with the gradual smoothness of supply and customs inspection, the amount of waste paper imports may increase in the next few months after 2018, but due to the limitation of quality standards, the increase is unlikely to increase significantly.
Accordingly, we expect to import about 15.5 million tons of waste paper this year, about 10 million tons less than last year. Domestic recycled waste paper is about 51.5 million tons, about 800,000 tons less than last year. The total production of waste paper pulp was about 55 million tons, a decrease of about 8 million tons from the previous year, a decrease of about 12.7%.
3. Production and consumption of primary pulp
According to the above analysis of domestic raw pulp production and import of commercial pulp and waste paper, combined with domestic paper and paperboard production and consumption and domestic waste paper recycling, we expect domestic raw pulp production this year to be about 16 million tons, compared with last year. Approximately 3% decline, plus the volume of imports and exports, it is estimated that the annual consumption of raw paper pulp for papermaking is about 38 million tons, down about 1% year-on-year.
Production and consumption forecast for the whole year of 04 and 2018
Based on the above data and analysis, we expect domestic pulp and paper production and consumption for the whole year of 2018 to be:
1. The total production of paper and paperboard is about 103 million tons, down about 7.5% year-on-year.
2. Apparent consumption of paper and cardboard was about 103.8 million tons, down about 4.7% year-on-year.
3. The total production of pulp for papermaking is about 71 million tons, down about 11.0% year-on-year.
4. Paper pulp consumption is about 93 million tons, down about 7.5% year-on-year.
The overall trend of domestic papermaking industry production and market in 2005 and 2018
This year, the overall situation of the domestic economy is stable and steadily improving, but many changes have taken place in the external environment, such as Sino-US trade issues, exchange rate changes and increased environmental management, which have slowed down China’s economic development and increased downward pressure. The paper industry is not only a raw material industry, but also a number of industries. The above problems will inevitably affect our paper industry.
Based on these changes and in combination with the paper industry's production and market trend analysis this year, we believe that the domestic paper industry production and market in 2018 have the following trends:
1. The overall situation of production and operation in the paper industry will remain basically stable. However, as economic development slows down and demand declines, the total production of paper and paperboard will decrease throughout the year, and production and sales will remain basically balanced.
2. The main economic indicators such as the main business income and profit of the paper industry will remain positive in the whole year, but the growth rate will decrease compared with the previous year. Affected by factors such as market demand and raw material costs, corporate performance will be differentiated and difficult enterprises will increase.
3, due to the implementation of strict quality inspection standards for waste paper imports, and the supply that can meet the requirements is reduced, this will lead to a significant reduction in the amount of waste paper imports this year.
4. Influenced by the domestic raw pulp production and the total amount of domestic waste paper and the import policy of waste paper raw materials, in order to meet the market demand for paper and paperboard, the demand for paper pulp by imported paper manufacturers will increase.
5. Due to factors such as production cost, market price and commercial interests, most paper and paperboard products in the domestic market will increase import volume, while export volume will decrease.
06, the overall situation of domestic paper industry production and market next year
Judging the domestic papermaking situation next year, we believe that:
1. The state will continue to adhere to the general tone of steady progress, implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, so that the economy will continue to operate in a reasonable range. Under this background, as a paper industry supporting many industries, production And consumption will still be pulled. It is expected that the overall operation of the paper industry will continue to be stable, and market demand may be lower and higher.
2. Affected by the gradual tightening of China-US trade war and waste paper import policies and exchange rate changes, it will bring uncertain factors to the stable development of paper products production and consumption.
3. The needs and pressures of ecological civilization construction have increased the intensity of environmental management. At present, several provinces are formulating a “negative list†of industrial transfer, which has increased the adjustment of industrial structure. This change will bring changes to the existing enterprises, products, regions and other structures and market patterns in the paper industry, and at the same time affect the production and operation of some papermaking enterprises.
4. From the current situation, the waste paper import policy will be gradually tightened, and the quantity will be gradually reduced. This will lead to an increase in the demand for domestic waste paper, but it will be recycled due to the restriction of the total domestic recycling. The tighter paper volume will also increase the demand for commercial pulp.
5. With the structural reform of the supply side and the promotion of the construction of the Belt and Road, especially the implementation of the import policy of waste paper raw materials, the willingness of some papermaking enterprises to set up factories abroad will be enhanced, especially for pulp mills that use waste paper as raw materials. . Here, we need to remind manufacturers with the willingness to invest, we must do a good job in the preliminary research work, especially pay attention to the other party's policy changes.
6. With the approval of the State Council, the commodity bleached softwood pulp futures for papermaking will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. This measure is conducive to enterprises to find prices, predict costs, and add a hedging financing channel to enterprises, but due to the increase in social participation, it will also bring fluctuations and changes to the commodity pulp market and disguise the impact of commercial pulp. The spot market. Therefore, this futures product should attract special attention.
07, conclusion
Throughout the production and operation of the paper industry this year, the paper industry has also encountered difficulties in reducing market demand, rising raw material costs, and falling profits, in the context of the macroeconomic “stable change†and “stable and moderateâ€. Changes in external environment, such as Sino-US trade issues, exchange rate changes, and tightening of environmental management, have led to an increase in the overall production and operation problems of the paper industry this year, and difficulties have increased, especially the economic benefits have fallen sharply.
Looking forward to the situation of the paper industry next year, although there are still many uncertainties in the external environment, the Chinese economy will continue to operate in a reasonable range from the recent policy of supporting the private economy to boost economic development. In this context, combined with the positioning and role of the paper industry, it will still bring room for development in the paper industry. As long as we adhere to the direction of "green paper industry", through supply-side structural reforms, enhance innovation capabilities, increase new kinetic energy, and effectively control new capacity, we can foresee better next year.
The above are some of the conditions of the domestic paper industry and my understanding of these issues, please correct me if it is inappropriate.
Responsible editor: Ge
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