Source: Zhuo created paper; carton micro-vision editing
After the Spring Festival in 2019, the scale paper enterprises led the rise, the small and medium-sized paper enterprises followed suit, and the corrugated and cardboard paper market rose steadily. It is expected that in March and April, the increase in cost will support the price of paper or increase, and in the late 2019, the increase in corrugated and cardboard paper will be between 2% and 3%.
The scale paper enterprises led the rise, and the small and medium-sized paper enterprises followed suit. After the Spring Festival, corrugated and cardboard papers rose steadily.
After the Spring Festival in 2019, the corrugated and cardboard paper market showed a steady upward trend. Special-scale paper enterprises announced that they would increase the price of corrugated and boxboard paper by 50/ton from February 18, which greatly boosted the confidence of the whole market. Some small and medium-sized paper enterprises followed Up 50-150/ton.
Statistics show that as of now, the average price of corrugated paper is 3920/ton, which is 1.62% higher than that before the holiday; the average price of cardboard paper is 4627/ton, which is 1.09% higher than that before the holiday.
The rise in paper prices this time was mainly driven by the rise in the price of raw waste paper. In addition, downstream packaging companies started to work on the demand for corrugated and cardboard paper. At the same time, most of the paper enterprises carried out downtime maintenance work during the Spring Festival, and the willingness to increase prices was stronger when the inventory pressure was not high.
Then, in the late 2019, can the corrugated and cardboard paper market carry out the price increase?
It is expected that corrugated and boxboard paper will increase between 2% and 3% in the late 2019.
From the perspective of new capacity, according to incomplete statistics, the total production capacity of the proposed new projects for corrugated and boxboard in 2019 is about 9.3 million tons, of which the total capacity of the planned new construction of corrugated paper is about 2.85 million tons. The newly added capacity is about 6.45 million tons.
Among them, the Group's production capacity is the mainstay. The production plans of some of the bases of Nine Dragons Paper are all carried out in the second and third quarters of 2019. The total planned new capacity is 2.05 million tons, accounting for 31.78% of the total.
However, considering that the profit margin of paper companies began to narrow in 2018 and there is no shortage of losses, there are also problems of strict approval of new projects and insufficient funds for enterprise construction. The new project capacity in 2019 is only about 4 million tons. .
In addition, from the demand side, as the widely used sales packaging and transportation packaging materials, the demand for carton has a very high positive correlation with the growth rate of China's GDP, so the total demand for corrugated and cardboard paper will maintain positive growth, but consider Uncertainties such as downward pressure on the domestic economy and reduction in export trade orders are expected to be not optimistic, ranging from 2% to 3%.
In March and April, the cost increase supported the price of corrugated and cardboard paper or increased
Therefore, for the late trend of the corrugated and cardboard paper market in 2019, it is expected to show a trend of first-inflation and post-suppression. The relationship between supply and demand is still an important factor affecting market operation. In addition, domestic economic trends and import and export policies are also the key factors affecting the market.
In March and April, under the expectation that the amount of foreign waste imports will be greatly reduced, the demand for new capacity will be greatly increased, and the price of domestic waste will be boosted. The increase in cost will support the price of corrugated and boxboard paper. .
However, with the launch of new projects, the supply pressure of corrugated and boxboard papers has gradually emerged. In the absence of obvious follow-up, the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry has intensified.
The rational return of raw waste paper prices has fallen to a low level. Under the weaker cost support, it is expected that the downward pressure on corrugated and boxboard paper prices will be higher in the second and third quarters, and the lowest price in the year will appear in October.
The fourth quarter is the traditional demand season for the packaging paper market, and the market may pick up, but the possibility of a sharp rise in paper prices under the bearish atmosphere is less likely.
Editor in charge: Xia Jing
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