Packaging zone
Although the upstream raw paper manufacturers are still tirelessly pushing up the price of paper, they can't resist a cold market. This is not the case. After a few days ago, there was a cardboard factory callback price cut to feed the eagle, and a number of cardboard factories were forced to exchange prices for orders!
Nowadays, the cardboard industry seems to have returned to the state before 2016. It is full of bitterness and sorrow. The pessimism spread to the whole industry, which is extremely strong. The difference is that the false prosperity in 2017 has dug a big pit for the industry, 24 in Dongguan/15 in Suzhou. These high-speed and large-width wide corrugated board production lines have pushed the industry to the corner.
Judging from the feedback from some people in the cardboard industry, the current industry is seriously short of orders, the Spring Festival has already passed, and the overall operating rate of the factory is less than 50%. In desperation, the cardboard factory had to cut the meat and feed the eagle. At the end of February, the wave of price hikes in the cardboard industry had not been seriously implemented and it was declared over.
It was really a moment. At that time, the paperboard factory was looking forward to the price increase of the paper mills. The grand occasion of the rise of the cardboard relay has been completely changed. The original paper manufacturers can push the price increase with the high concentration of the industry, but the cardboard manufacturers have to cut prices. It is a wonderful thing. The paperboard factory is looking forward to a rise, and the pattern of the carton factory has turned into a dramatic change. It is hoped that the rise in paper prices will become the three-level carton factory that was most afraid of rising.
For the paperboard industry that cuts meat and sores, the most hope is that the price of paper has plummeted. However, the upstream paper mills seem to have reached a tacit agreement, no longer engage in low-price competition, but to increase the price to compensate for the continuation of demand. Shrinking.
So, what are the big things going on in the paper packaging market next?
1. The demand for base paper continues to shrink. From the current situation, export orders have been overdrawn in the fourth quarter of last year, and export orders in the first half will be lighter than in previous years.
2. Downstream consumer goods orders have fallen all the way. Due to the sluggishness of various industries and the reduction of residents' income, coupled with the bundling of mortgage loans, the decline in consumer goods orders is inevitable. From the current observations, whether it is household appliances, mobile phones, or automotive and real estate related industries, orders are in a downturn.
3, the first-level factory to grab the cardboard box order. Faced with the expansion of production capacity and the reduction of demand, large-scale first-class factories that have basically achieved control of a few large enterprises and have already laid out the downstream cardboard and cardboard industry may adopt a way of maintaining high prices and rushing to grab cardboard and cardboard orders at low prices.
4. The government has come forward to stabilize the market. Of course, if there is a low-price grab or a large price increase, it may lead to market chaos. It does not rule out that the government is as strong as the intervention of the real estate market. Enterprises can only suffer painfully, and enterprises with insufficient cash flow are eliminated.
In 2019, the true face of the paper mill will be exposed, the cardboard industry and the paper packaging industry will face severe challenges, and the elimination and transformation is imminent. Fortunately, packaging is an industry with a wide coverage, always challenges and opportunities. Moreover, this industry has developed rapidly for more than 30 years and has never experienced a big ups and downs. I believe that after some tempering, the industry will become more powerful.
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