Focus on market dynamics: the paper industry is profitable

[China Packaging and Printing Industry Network Market News]

According to the statistics of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, as of now, 86 listed companies in the light manufacturing industry have disclosed the 2016 annual performance forecast and performance report. Among them, 65 companies expect full-year net profit growth, and 5 companies have turned losses, mainly in paper, packaging and printing, household light industry and furniture industries.

It is worth mentioning that, driven by factors such as sales revenue growth, product price increase and capacity optimization, the growth rate of net profit of listed companies in many papermaking industries showed a rapid growth last year. Among them, Jingxing Paper, Bohui Paper and Huatai Co., Ltd. all achieved a growth rate of over 100%. With the tightening of environmental protection standards and the peak season of demand, the current inventory of papermaking enterprises continues to be low, dealers and downstream printing plants are more active in replenishing stocks, and white card paper and coated paper have obvious price increases.

From the perspective of the supply side, affected by multiple factors such as environmental protection policies and waste paper quotas, the paper industry has shut down more non-standard enterprises, and the total production capacity of the industry has declined. Since last year, the year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory of paper-listed companies has slowed from 4% in March last year. In June, the overall finished goods inventory of the industry began to decline year-on-year, and the decline in September further expanded to 5.4%. The brokerage research report shows that the current stocks of major paper mills and dealers are all within 20 days, and some of the stocks have been booked in advance, so the actual stocks are lower. It is expected that the supply side of the industry will shrink further this year, and the market will still be in short supply. . From the demand side, the March to May of each year is the traditional peak season of the paper industry. After the Spring Festival this year, the downstream enterprises gradually started to work, and the inventory consumption was faster.

Since February this year, a number of paper-making enterprises have successively raised their prices, and the trend of shutdowns and insured prices after the big factories have been obvious. According to the data of China Paper Network, on February 9th, Tianjin Xiaolong and Dongguan Jianhui issued a price increase letter to adjust the price of papers such as gray-white board, ranging from 100 yuan to 200 yuan per ton. From February 13th to 14th, Nine Dragons Paper announced that the prices of cattle cardboard and corrugated paper of Taicang Xiaolong and Dongguan Xiaolong were raised by 200 yuan per ton respectively. At the same time, many paper enterprises in Fuyang Whiteboard Base announced the price increase of finished paper. It ranges from 100 yuan to 150 yuan. On the 20th, the paper prices of Hangzhou Fuyang Kangnan Paper and Yiliang Hongxing Brothers Paper were raised by 100 yuan per ton.

The agency believes that under the impetus of supply-side reform and environmental protection, the low inventory of papermaking enterprises will promote the price of paper, and the medium and long-term supply and demand pattern of the industry will continue to improve. With the increase in industry concentration, the overall profitability of papermaking enterprises has bottomed out. In the process of continuous repair of profit margins, leading papermaking enterprises are expected to benefit.